Session: Rising Stars of Mechanical Engineering Celebration & Showcase

Paper Number: 147964

147964 - Modernizing Risk Assessment Through Systematic Integration of Phm and Pra (Sippra) 

The SIPPRA project seeks to create next generation risk assessment methodologies designed to enhance the safety and resilience of complex energy systems (e.g., nuclear power plants and hydrogen infrastructure). Risk-informed techniques are a critical tool used to design safety regulations, codes, and standards for energy systems and to design systems that comply with the associated requirements. The proposed research is grounded in the engineering techniques of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), which provide a comprehensive quantitative approach for drawing together many types of data and models to assess risk and deal with uncertainty in complex systems. However, PRA is largely static and can neither model dynamic system behavior and event progressions nor leverage new sensor data. In contrast, the field of Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) has developed powerful new algorithms for understanding and predicting component health under dynamic conditions using sensor data, but the methods applicable at the component level cannot model complex engineering systems with many types of components, human decision makers, and diverse and uncertain data. To date, there has been no work at the intersection of these two fields, in part because of a scale gap between the tools, data, and systems used in each field. This research seeks to “connect the dots” between PRA and PHM to provide new knowledge for the design of and compliance with regulations for energy systems.

This CAREER proposal explores the fundamental question of “how can concepts from the field of PHM and PRA be systematically integrated to improve risk-informed regulation?” To answer this question, I will focus on four research tasks: (R1) defining the conceptual structure of an integrated method, (R2) defining the mathematical and computational structures of the method, (R3) comparing those structures by way of energy system case studies, and (R4) conducting stakeholder-based validation with energy regulatory stakeholders. This project will use nuclear power plants and hydrogen fueling stations as a testbed, because I have acquired the necessary data and relationships for these applications in my previous work. Furthermore, using two different energy systems will ensure that the results are generalizable beyond a single energy system or regulatory process.

The educational and outreach objective is to broaden participation of underrepresented groups in Reliability Engineering and increase public knowledge of engineering risk assessment. To accomplish this I will (E1) create a digital exhibit on risk assessment for the National Museum of Nuclear Science and History and other Smithsonian-affiliated public science museums, and (E2) increase recruitment and retention of women and underrepresented minorities in Reliability Engineering

The proposed work will advance the science behind risk-informed regulations by improving the range of data sources and models which can be integrated into regulatory design and compliance. This is enabled by combining advances across two disparate domains with complementary techniques – PRA and PHM – with my domain expertise and stakeholder connections in energy regulation. Unlike past approaches which seek to make current PRA more dynamic or seek to extend PHM to more complicated types of components with traditional PHM, this research seeks to deconstruct PRA and PHM and engineer a new approach which leverages the benefit of both techniques. The intellectual merit is enhanced by the comparison of possible mathematical formalisms in a scientifically rigorous way, and my direct work with energy regulatory stakeholders to both validate the methods and ensure their adoption in regulation.

Risk assessment plays a critical role in regulatory decision-making for all energy technologies and is becoming increasingly important as systems become more complex in an era of digitalization. My work directly with regulators will ensure broader impacts in the regulatory community for nuclear power plants and hydrogen infrastructure. The results will also have implications for the design of regulations for oil and gas infrastructure, chemical process facilities, aerospace systems, and other critical
infrastructures with risk-informed regulatory processes. The integrated educational and outreach activities will provide the first public museum exhibit on engineering risk assessment, broadening public understanding of the science behind energy system safety.

Presenting Author: Katrina Groth University of Maryland

Presenting Author Biography: Katrina Groth is an Associate Professor of Mechanical Engineering and the Director of the Reliability Engineering program at the University of Maryland. Groth is recognized as an expert on safety, risk, and reliability analysis of energy systems. She leads a dynamic lab group researching Quantitative Risk Assessment methods, prognostics and health management (PHM) techniques for reliability monitoring and diagnosis of complex systems, and reliability data collection frameworks and algorithms. Her work has influenced safety practices and codes and standards for hydrogen fueling stations, hydrogen storage and electrolyzers, fuel cell forklifts, gas pipelines, aviation, maritime, nuclear power plants and more. Her notable hydrogen activities include inventing the DOE’s HyRAM+ toolkit and the HyCReD database, serving as an expert witness on hydrogen equipment failure investigations, and serving as technical chair of the first ASME Hydrogen Risk and Reliability Analysis Conference (HyRRAC). Groth has published over 125 peer-reviewed papers and technical reports, 1 textbook, and has developed multiple software packages. She has received numerous awards, including an NSF CAREER award, a DOE Hydrogen Program R&D Award, the ANS Landis Young Member Engineering Achievement Award, and participation in the 2021 U.S. Frontiers of Engineering symposium. She holds a B.S. in Engineering and an M.S. and Ph.D. in Reliability Engineering from the University of Maryland.

Authors:

Katrina Groth University of Maryland